Alleged classified documents belonging to Bashar al-Assad’s regime and uncovered after its fall offer a glimpse into a covert “mechanism” managed by Russia to limit Israeli military intervention in Syria. At issue was Assad’s increased reliance on Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah, to maintain his hold on power after a decade of crippling civil war.

The newly surfaced papers, marked “top secret and urgent,” reveal a mixture of threats and after-action memos detailing what Israel had just destroyed in 2023 and why. They offer the first real glimpse of what had long been suspected but never proven: that Israel, content to leave a weakened Assad in place and allow the Syrian Arab Army to meet its security “needs,” was dead set against the flow of Iranian weapons and the strengthening of militants loyal to Tehran in Syria, especially in the Golan Heights.

An Israeli operative code-named “Mousa” (Moses in English) directly messaged former Syrian Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas, the documents show. Abbas, who had served as the defense minister from April 28, 2022, then forwarded the communiques on to Ali Mamlouk, Assad’s notorious intelligence chief.

The series of documents examined by New Lines, based on screenshots circulating on social media, is dated from May to July 2023 — just a few months prior to Hamas’ atrocities against civilians in Israel on Oct. 7, followed by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks on Oct. 8. Israel’s long and punishing response to both has resulted in the annihilation of Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s senior military and political leaderships and arguably ended a project of Iranian hegemony in Levant that has lasted decades. It also indirectly contributed to Assad’s swift and unexpected ouster from power at the hands of Islamist rebels enabled by Turkey. That in turn led to Israel’s immediate intervention, denying those Islamists the very strategic weapons Israel had spared when they were under Assad’s control.

While we have not been able to independently verify the authenticity of the documents, several factors lead us to believe they are genuine. First, the cache surfaced immediately after the collapse of Assad’s regime, originating from intelligence sites in Damascus. Second, the documents bear official Syrian government stamps and formatting, including identifiers specific to the intelligence and defense sectors. Lastly, the information contained within these documents aligns with publicly available details and news reports about specific events, targets and operational timelines.

“The details of this unique covert deconfliction mechanism with Russia show clearly the overall Israeli comfort with Assad’s regime, emphasizing the old adage ‘the devil you know,’” Marc Polymeropolous, a former CIA officer with extensive experience in the Middle East, told New Lines. “This comfort also may have contributed negatively, however, to Israel’s initial reluctance to assist Ukraine, given Israel’s reliance on Russia in Syria.”

For instance, one message from May 17, 2023, underscores Israel’s anger over Iranian provocations: “On April 8, 2023, they launched three rockets toward Israel from the Golan Heights under the instruction of Hamas. Lately, because of the Quds Day and Flag March, we are observing Palestinian activities on your land. If the person leading these is not clear to you, these elements are directed by Khaled Meshaal and Saleh al-Arouri of Hamas. We warn you of the prospect of any activity of these parties on your territory and we demand you stop any [Iranian] preparations for the use of these forces on your territory — you’re responsible for what is happening in Syria.”

Moses goes on to allude to an unspecified Israeli “warning shot” in response to the rocket fire, presumably referring to the Israeli military’s artillery and drone strikes in southern Syria to take out the rocket launchers.

“Our next attack will be significantly stronger and more severe than what we’ve done so far,” Moses warns. “You will pay an unprecedented, hefty price.” Weeks later, on May 29, 2023, the operative cites explicit targets Israel had struck, such as “weapons depots linked to the southern command in Damascus” and a “training camp in Dumayr” used by Hezbollah. Syrian state-run news agency SANA reported on the strikes on May 29, saying Israel conducted strikes in and around Damascus from the Golan Heights the night before.

The documents reveal a deep reliance on Russian oversight, with Moscow playing an active role in moderating tensions between the two sides. Israel avoided targeting key Syrian military sites as long as Damascus adhered to the rules of the game. In return, Russia maintained its leverage over both parties, ensuring Assad’s regime survived.

The mechanism’s primary aim was ostensibly to limit Iran and Hezbollah’s operations, especially the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon. For example, a message from June 8, 2023, details Israeli intelligence tracking Iranian shipments: “Over the last two weeks, we observed the landing of eight planes in Hmeimim air base arriving from Iran. … Weapons were transferred on these planes. … If you continue to allow the transfer of weapons for Hezbollah and Iran, we will not stand idly by.”

These messages illustrate the precision of Israeli intelligence, which tracked shipments from their arrival at Russian-controlled air bases to their final destinations in Latakia and Qutayfa. Moses often warned Syria of specific individuals involved, such as Hezbollah commander Hajj Hashem (Munir Ali Naim Shaito) and operations like the “Golan File” training camps near Damascus. In every instance, the warnings carried an implicit — and sometimes explicit — threat of military retaliation.

The “Golan File” is a covert Hezbollah operation aimed at establishing Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructure and networks along the Syrian-Israeli border in the Golan Heights. Directed at the time by senior Hezbollah commander Ali Musa Daqduq, also known as Abu Hussein Sajid, the project has sought to create cells capable of launching attacks into Israeli territory. Daqduq, who previously orchestrated attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq, was reportedly killed in an Israeli strike on Nov. 10 this year.

The strategy includes recruiting local operatives and stockpiling weapons to support potential attacks. These activities were part of Hezbollah’s broader goal of leveraging the conflict in Syria to establish a new front against Israel. The initiative reportedly received direction from top Hezbollah and Iranian officials, including Hassan Nasrallah and Quds Force leadership.

In response to these threats, Israel conducted numerous preemptive operations to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the region. For instance, a December 2023 airstrike in southern Syria targeted and killed Muhammad al-Tamar, also known as Abu Julan, a key operative within the Golan File unit. This operation highlights Israel’s ongoing efforts to counteract the growing Hezbollah presence near its borders.