Shaun
Spotted at the end of 2024, scientists estimated the diameter of this asteroid would be within the range of 40-90 metres, reported Interesting Engineering.
The chances of it impacting Earth are small, but their potential consequences are enough to grab attention, as per the report. Even the European Space Agency (ESA) has listed it as the highest-risk asteroid on their watch list, with a 2.2% chance of impact by 2032.
Although the possibility of a collision is slim, the potential effects associated with it justify strong vigilance, according to the agency. As per the report, the asteroid is expected to miss Earth by a wide margin, there is a 98% chance, on December 22, 2032.
Tracking the asteroid
The biggest challenge for astronomers is to precisely determine the asteroid’s orbit and size. These factors are crucial to understanding the actual threat it poses, reported Intresting Engineering. Astronomers will use the James Webb Space Telescope to gain insights into the asteroid’s size and orbit in early March when the asteroid is brightest, and the second is in May.
This is where the collaboration of two of the world’s greater powers, the US and China, will be really important. Both nations are stepping up independent campaigns to keep a watch, as per the report.
For example, as part of an in-house asteroid defence mission set for 2030, China is currently assembling the establishment of a “planetary defense team,” the mission directing towards the observation of near-Earth asteroids and crashing a spacecraft into them as a deflection method, similar to the successful DART mission of NASA in 2022.
According to the report, if this asteroid poses a significant threat of collision with Earth, then NASA and China might have to deflect it by crashing spacecraft into it, which will alter its orbit.
FAQs
How likely is it that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth?
The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth are small, with a 2.2% chance of impact by 2032. Current calculations show a 98% chance that it will miss Earth by a wide margin in December 2032.
What is the biggest challenge scientists face in tracking this asteroid?
The biggest challenge is accurately determining the asteroid’s orbit and size. Current estimates are based on reflected light, which can be unreliable. Upcoming observations using the James Webb Space Telescope will provide more precise data.
Disclaimer Statement: This content is authored by a 3rd party. The views expressed here are that of the respective authors/ entities and do not represent the views of Economic Times (ET). ET does not guarantee, vouch for or endorse any of its contents nor is responsible for them in any manner whatsoever. Please take all steps necessary to ascertain that any information and content provided is correct, updated, and verified. ET hereby disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, relating to the report and any content therein.
